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Spatial Epidemics and Local Times for Critical Branching Random Walks in Dimensions 2 and 3

机译:中国临界分支随机游走的空间流行与地方时代   尺寸2和3

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摘要

The behavior at criticality of spatial SIR (susceptible/infected/recovered)epidemic models in dimensions two and three is investigated. In these models,finite populations of size N are situated at the vertices of the integerlattice, and infectious contacts are limited to individuals at the same or atneighboring sites. Susceptible individuals, once infected, remain contagiousfor one unit of time and then recover, after which they are immune to furtherinfection. It is shown that the measure-valued processes associated with theseepidemics, suitably scaled, converge, in the large-N limit, either to astandard Dawson-Watanabe process (super-Brownian motion) or to aDawson-Watanabe process with location-dependent killing, depending on the sizeof the the initially infected set. A key element of the argument is a proof ofAdler's 1993 conjecture that the local time processes associated with branchingrandom walks converge to the local time density process associated with thelimiting super-Brownian motion.
机译:研究了二维和三维空间SIR(易感/感染/恢复)流行病模型在临界状态下的行为。在这些模型中,大小为N的有限种群位于整数晶格的顶点,并且传染性接触仅限于位于相同或相邻位置的个体。易感个体一旦被感染,将在一个单位时间内保持传染性,然后恢复,此后他们对进一步感染免疫。结果表明,与这些流行病有关的测度过程在N的最大限制下收敛于标准的Dawson-Watanabe过程(超布朗运动)或Dawson-Watanabe过程,其位置相关的杀死,取决于最初感染的病毒集的大小。该论点的关键要素是对阿德勒(Adler)1993年猜想的证明,即与分支随机游走相关的局部时间过程收敛于与极限超布朗运动相关的局部时间密度过程。

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